Do you know the answer to this?
I've been thinking about the advantages of having the first move. At a 1500 level player at playchess at what rating level do you think I would have equal chances against my opponents. In other words each of us having a 50% shot at winning. 1520,1550,1600....? (lets disregard draws of which I have very few,just games that are decided by victory) Inquiring minds want to know! what do you think?
posted by takchess @ 6:19 AM
3 Comments:
At 9:16 AM,
Anonymous said…
If you were playing a 1500 and he had first move, I would think that you would have to be 1550-1580 to beat him. White wins 53% of the time if I recal, so you skill would have to make up that 6 points.
At 12:46 PM,
Loomis said…
I'll take a shot at this, though I'm going to stretch logic a bit. Larry Kaufman did an in-depth study on piece value and found that 200 ratings points is roughly equal to 1 pawn. If you look at computer evaluations of the starting position or <5 moves into a standard (fighting) opening, you typically see about +.2 (where 1 is 1 pawn). Combining these facts, we might guess that the first move is worth .2*200 = 40 rating points.
However, games at the 1500 level are not often decided by the opening advantage. Who makes the last mistake is a bigger factor than who makes the first move. So I would guess it's actually less than 40 points.
There, now you have my worthless guess. :-)
At 3:53 PM,
Anonymous said…
Your style of opening play isn't liable to statistics.
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